04 June 2011

2nd half of year predictions, debuted groups

Well summer has come and the year is about half way over now. The first half had some big surprises, both good and bad and mostly unpredictable. Hopefully the rest of the year will be calmer and things can start getting back to normal as things can get for Japan. I'll just be covering debuted (or officially set to debut) groups as I'm sure I'll get long winded about the Juniors.

SMAP looks like they'll manage as they always have the rest of the year. They're still one of the most popular Japanese artists and will keep busy with variety programs, dramas and movies. I can see them either releasing another single or a new album before the end of the year to keep their 20th anniversary celebration on track. Very few artists reach that hallmark, especially idol groups so I can't see Johnny's not wanting to do something for it for one of their top groups.

TOKIO has enough regular work they will continue doing. I am hoping though they will finally release an album before the end of the year. As they've already done a concert for this year I doubt they'll do another, though if they do release a new album they may tour next year.

Like the rest of the older groups Kinki Kids really doesn't seem all that affected by the first half of the year. Koichi has Endless Shock to keep him busy and I'm sure Tsuyoshi will find something for him to do. They also have a single coming up in a couple of weeks so they'll have their single for the year. Wouldn't be surprised if they do the usual tour in Winter so they'll have the Tokyo Dome for Countdown like usual.

As they haven't released a single this year I'll predict that V6 will release one before the end of the year. Though I don't see them doing much else. Usually I would assume they would have a tour still, either as a full group or one of the sub-units, but it doesn't look like there will be as many concert tours this year as there usually are and I can see them being one of the groups that will not be making their usual yearly tour.

Being one of the top groups more or less ensures that Arashi will continue to have the kind of releases they would usually. Which can be seen with the fact they have a concert DVD and a studio album coming up to be released over the summer as well as a tour lined up to take them through to early next year. I'll predict they'll have at least one more single that will be released, maybe two, before the year ends.

Tackey & Tsubasa are hard to guess about what will happen with them. The only thing that seems certain with them are the musical productions they keep themselves busy with. Release-wise I wouldn't be surprised if we don't anything more from them, together or as soloist.

I'd guess that we'd get at least a single from NEWS before the end of the year. I know there was a rumor for one for a July release but unless it ends up being late July I don't see that being more than a rumor. But as Yamapi's solo concert winds down and if Kanjani8 doesn't have anything lined up anytime soon I can see a single for the group being released in the next few months.

Kanjani8 have had a good year so far, despite all things. They're ending a string of single releases and I can see them putting out either another single or an album near the end of the year. I'm also sure we'll be seeing them do another winter tour so they can have the Kyocera Dome again for Countdown.

Poor KAT-TUN. This year was supposed to be their 5 year anniversary celebration but it doesn't look like things are turning out well for them. While I can see them keeping things up with releases they have had their concert tour canceled. I can see them releasing one more single and then an album before the year is out but they'll have to wait for 2012 to tour again.

Hey! Say! JUMP looks to be slowly getting back to some sort of regular release schedule. They're still hampered a bit with having to share members with NYC but they've been doing better with balancing the two groups. With any luck we'll get one more single from them before the end of the year or at latest early 2012. They're also one of the lucky groups that will be able to tour this year and have SUMMARY over the summer. It'll be interesting to see if they'll do the usual winter tour this year.

I don't see any new releases for Akanishi Jin until after he finishes filming for the 47 Ronin movie. And if anything it'll probably be another Japanese single.

Kis-My-Ft2 is probably the other group that's been most affected by the earthquake. They've had their debut single pushed back to sometime this summer and personally I'm going to guess it'll be sometime in August at this point. The tie-in to the Ikemen Desu ne drama will be a help though and make August the ideal month as then there will be anticipation built up from the drama for the release and the single should get a sales boost every time an episode airs once it has been released. Luckily they still have their tour and it seems to still be on schedule. I can see them getting at least one more single out before the end of the year and maybe we can finally get a concert DVD from them if not this year but next year.

And I guess I'll stick NYC here as well. I think it's possible for them to release another single before the end of the year but honestly they've already released something this year so they don't really need to and they can just use Yumetamago to be their end of year song.

And that about rounds everything up for the debuted groups.


Viv said...

V6's concert tour has already been announced. 14 shows going from late August to early October.

Jackie said...

Sorry for not being around here for quite a while. I´m was really busy with university , but now I´m finally back!

Anyway, I love your post !
*TackiTsuba: Well, I agree with you. I also don´t see a new single/album coming this year. I felt so sorry for them that their last mini-album sold so bad. I guess it was because of the earthquake but still..
I also think they´ll do something more like stage plays etc.
Takki and Tsubasa are doing great in stage plays I think. I see Takki become more and more directing plays and as for this summer, I´m looking forward to hear/see more about Tsubasa´s performance in Playzone 2011.

*NEWS: I kind of feel like Johnny-san doesn´t care much about them as a whole group. They are not having any releases, concerts etc. Just Yamapi of course. I imagine, being a NEWS fan must be quite tough becaue they have to wait so long for new activities.
Well, I would also be glad for the members if they could release a new single or so.

*K8: Now, with the 3 singles in Spring,personally I don´t see a new single coming up until the end of the year. Most likely as you said, they´ll have this concert at the end of the year.

* KAT-TUN: I also feel so bad for them. Not only their recent singles sold not that well, their concerts got cancelled. So sad for them and the fans. But well, at least Kame, Koki and Maru will have Dream Boys in September.

* HSJ : Finally they´ll release a new single !! Even though they weren´t releasing for quite some months, HSJ were really active. Wintercon and then Spring Tour , in summer SUMMARY now .. While the other debuted groups don´t have concerts , those boys are having concerts so often! I´m happy for them and the fans but I wonder why only HSJ? Is it because they are much younger?
I also see their next single coming at least in early 2012, but as for Yamada and Chinen, maybe they´ll do something as NYC in the end of the year.
I´m looking forward to SUMMARY,also, since many Juniors participate there as well. and I hope their new single will sell good!
And speaking of Juniors, I think there´ll be Tozai Uta Gassen again.

*NYC: I don´t know if they´ll release something in autumn. Yamada , Chinen and Nakayama Yuma are busy in summer with summary and playzone. Then I wonder if Johnny plans to let them participate in Kouhaku again?! If so, then I could imagine , they´d release a new single before December. Also, those boys are always so busy, I can´t imagine they would do nothing in autumn. I´m sure there´s something coming for them, might it be a new single or not.

Kis-my-ft2: Fans and the members must wait so long and there´s till no detailled date for their debut release. It´s not only because of the earthquake postpone thing but also because of those AKB48 groups, who seem to have releases each week in July. No way Johnny´s would let them compete with one of those groups, since the debut is really important .
So, I agree with you: August must be the date for their release finally.
This makes me think of another thing: Well, if Kis-my will debut in August, I personally don´t see a Volley Ball debut this year.
If they would have released in May, as it was originally planned, then I could see a volleyball debut in November, but I can´t imagine, Johnnys would debut the next group just about 2 months after or so.
It would also be not fair towards Kis-my ft2 because the attention would go to the next debuted group.
No, I don´t think we´ll get a volleyball debut this year.
Kind of disappointing since me and so many other readers of your blog were so excited to guess who will debut.
What do ou think about it?

Anonymous said...

Why is Kanjani8 not joining Countdown in Tokyo Dome but always staying in Osaka??

I´m a Kis-my-ft2 fan and I´m so happy they´ll debut this summer, but it really takes so long. Their debut song has been changed into a more bright and upbeat song and even though I haven´t heard it yet, I´m a bit disappointed. I hoped for a powerful debut song like "Fire Beat" or so.
But I hope for the best !
I also can imagne them releasing their second single before the next year starts.

Ireally hope for some new single from NEWS, and not only Yamapi or Tegomass.

HeySayJump seems to hold lots of concerts but they don´t release that often. Probably because of NYC.
I think, "OVER" will be their only single this year.
YamaChii will synchronize characters in the movie "Smurfs" and some people are thinking about a new NYC single, since it would fit NYC´s image.
But I don´t want to see them interacting with some Smurfs in the PV >_>
Maybe NYC will have a new single like last year, in October /November, which won´t hopefully have anything to do with Smurfs.

I was thinking the same as the user above. Will we have a volleyball debut this year or not?
I think JE won´t debut two groups in such a short time range.
Also, only Nakajima Kento seems to get pushed because he´s appearing in quite some dramss recently. But Idon´t see any push for the other Juniors, who may debut this year.
What would be possible is that they just let some Juniors supporting the volley ball cup, without a real debut.
With other Juniors, I could imagine JE taking for example Yuma, B.I.Shadow, hip Hop Jump, and Japanese Hi as background.
Or NYC will become maybe in charge for the support. Well, just my thoughts.
But it will be interesting to see what will happen. You never know in Johnnys world ;)

Chris said...

For this year I´m most interested to see Kis-my-ft2´s debut.
For example how the debut song+PV will look like, their sales, drama, eventually second single, any variety show etc.
I always had the image, Johnny doesn´t like them THAT much or they weren´t his favoruites, obviously. But so nice he decided to debut them.
It´s all thanks to the fans I think^^
Can´t wait for some Arashi stuff as well.

Thennary Nak said...

@ Viv

I forgot about that, I don't know how as I remember seeing the announcement for it. So I guess they'll be more active than I predicted after all.

@ Jackie

That's fine, school kept me from updating like I wanted to so I understand.

T&T unfortunately do seem to be over. I think they'll probably stick around kinda like Shounentai and be mainly active with plays/musicals and not really releasing anything not related to those.

At this point I'm wondering if they maybe should disband if they're going to be this inactive. I would hate it and definitely cry from the news but as long as none of them leave the agency I could live with it. Of course I would much rather have it the other way with the full group being active once more on a regular basis but I'm not sure if that's very realistic.

I think KAT-TUN's issue is that the started at their peak so there really was only one way to go. Though they do always have the chance of being able to turn things around again but that's going to rely on a good deal of luck as well.

I think my real big disappointment with HSJ is that they're coming up on their 5 year anniversary and only have one album out so far. I hope they can get out a second before the anniversary, though it's still sad as most groups have enough for a singles collection by then.

I've felt that NYC was created to do the kiddie-esque songs that HSJ could no longer do as their members were much too old. So I think they're stuck with the cutesy stuff until there's another young group to take their place. It'll be interesting then to see if NYC sticks around or disbands then.

I really feel sorry for Kisumai. Though now with the promos for Ikeman Desu ne showing up I think they'll be fine in the end. And I can see them doing the volleyball support this year instead of a new group, as it would be good promotion for a second single. And I agree that with Kisumai's debut pushed back so far I don't see a new group getting debuted this year.

If we get a new debut group I see it happening next year. Though I wouldn't guess when other than sometime 2012. I don't think Johnny's would want to wait much longer because they have a lot of Juniors and with over 4 years from HSJ's debut it seems like a good time to create a new group and get some of them debuted.

@ Anonymous

I think it's mainly because there are so many groups now and having the two domes allows many more fans to enjoy Countdown. I don't think it's anything against K8 as Kinki Kids were the first to hold a Countdown concert in Osaka, K8 has just taken over from them.

Seeing as NYC has never interacted with the animated cast of the anime series their singles have been tied-in to I don't think they would have the Smurfs in a PV if they do the theme song for the movie.

I don't think there will be a new group debut this year. We'll probably get it next year and an already existing group will do the volleyball support instead. I can see either NYC or even Kis-My-Ft2 doing that but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

@ Chris

I'm interested in their debut as well. But I think they've gotten lucky with the Ikemen Desu ne tie-in as there looks to be a lot of promotion for it which can mean a lot of promotion for Kisumai as well. I know Kisumai is already scheduled to appear on Heyx3 Music Champ, I believe early next month, so hopefully we'll be getting more news about the debut soon, like the release date of the single.