Let's Speculate.... Johnny Kitagawa's Legacy & Hey! Say! JUMP

With the flair up of the rivalry between Julie Kitagama and Iijima Michi as they battle it out to be selected as Johnny Kitagawa's successor which group falls under whom has been brought up. In this it is rumored that Johnny himself is still managing some groups, namely the younger ones like Hey! Say! JUMP, Sexy Zone and A.B.C-Z. This makes some sense as they are the three groups being mainly featured in his ambitious musical extravaganza Johnny's World.

If this is the case then I cannot help but worry about the future for HSJ. They have already been mis-managed before by not releasing a CD in over a year back around 2009 and never seem to have the promise that they have had since debut utilized well. And some of the more recent decisions by Johnny has me worried that they never will be a well utilized group.

While Johnny has gone after records before in the past year he seems to becoming more and more obsessed with them. I feel this is a part of his desire to make sure he is leaving a strong legacy behind him before he decides to retire, which he would have to be seriously considering for the current rivalry to be as heated as it has seemly gotten.

He also is eyeing international markets, which is nice for international fans in a way, but whether or not he has the savvy to get his acts to successfully enter them is another matter. Naming a group of teens and younger Sexy Zone is far from a vote of confidence in that area, as nowhere in the West would that go down well at all. But then again he did allow Akanishi Jin to start using the standard internet media outlets, Youtube, Twitter, Facebook, etc fro his U.S. venture so perhaps he might be able to make the needed adjustments for that, or at least trust in people from those markets in knowing how an artist needs to be handled.

So what does this mean for HSJ? Out of the three groups that are rumored to be under his management HSJ is the only one that has a proven success sales record and is already established and stable in Japan. They are also now all out of high school and will be turning 20, the legal age of adulthood in Japan this year, 2013. This makes them the best group to use for his aims with going international and establishing whatever records he can with them. In fact I suspect part of why it was decided for Yamada Ryosuke to release a solo single was so he could get that record of highest male teen solo debut since Kondo Masahiko record.

Also there is no denying that HSJ has been hindered from doing much else than Johnny's World these past couple of months, being the main feature in it. And every time it seems to be coming to an end there is an announcement that it will be extended in some way. Hopefully it will be over after the Dome performances and HSJ can do something like finally release another single. Because if they do not continue to release new CDs they will be surpassed by SZ easily within a year or so if they keep their pace up.

Johnny keeps talking about wanting to expand internationally and wanting to do shows in the U.S. but I feel he is hindering the popularity of his groups, like in this case HSJ, in Japan to try to make this happen. I think it would fare much better if he created a new group specifically for his international ambitions, because really in the U.S. very few are going to care if they are the biggest thing in Japan or nobodies so it would be wiser to not hinder an established artist for a project like that.

Mid-year predictions and thoughts, 2012 (reviewed)

I figured as the year closes it would be a good time to review the predictions I made mid-year to see what I was right on and what I was not before I make me predictions for the first half of 2013.

TOKIO, will release something? Maybe? Honestly TOKIO has gained a very erratic schedule when it comes to releases it makes it extremely difficult to predict when the next will be. They are long and well overdue for a new album but I am not sure if I should even still expect one from them any time soon and not just another single. But I do hope they release something before the close of the year, and album would be great but I would settle for another single if I must.

Well they finally released the long overdue album and it was great and they even did a concert tour. So it was a good year for TOKIO fans. So I am counting this as a win in my corner for being correct.

NEWS have their best of album already slated to release and still have the single and concerts already announced. I think that will be the summer for them, most likely sometime in July as August looks like it will likely be full of AKS releases and NEWS does have a number 1 streak to protect. I hope they can start releasing singles at a steady pace once this comeback single comes out. I would be happy if they at least release one more single before the end of the year.

It would be nice if one of the members gets some kind of drama role during the second half of the year as well. It would be nice to see that kind of push for the group after the recent member change. Though I guess at least Tegoshi Yuya, Kato Shigeaki and Koyama Keiichiro have regular programs they are a part of to help with TV exposure.

Well I got my wish here that they released one more single before the end of the year so score another one for me. And they even got to keep their number one streak for singles, which is the main one people care about.

Shige and Massu both got drama roles and Koyama is going to be in the Lucky Seven SP so on that front they did well. Even though I doubt they will ever get a big break just continuing as they are should help them in the long run for being able to prove worth keeping as a group.

Kanjani8 will continue to release singles at a steady pace until it is time to release a new album for their annual winter concert tour. Though I expect there being something special being done for their next album as they are making this year their big anniversary year being their 8th year since debut. I know they just announced the special thank you concerts for their 8th anniversary but I still think they will stick to their usual schedule as well, as someone has to be at the Kyocera Dome for Johnny’s Count Down and I really cannot see anyone but K8 doing that.

They seem to be having a packed year with work and I doubt it will change. Already two members have been announced as leads for summer dramas and I am sure the fall season will continue with Kanjani8 members in dramas. Then of course there is their movie, even though they are done filming for it their will still be plenty of promotion they will be doing.

Looks like I ended up being off with K8. Their album was just the usual best album, though the limited editions did have some nice DVD extras. Also performing on Kouhaku means no Kyocera Dome for JCD.

I was right on the drama front as they do continue to have at least one member in a drama every season and I do not see that changing anytime soon.

Hey! Say! JUMP should have at least a couple more singles to be released this year. I think one in the fall and another in winter would be good. It will be interesting to see if the tour in the winter this year or become a group that only tours when they have a new album like the older Johnny’s groups. Summary has already moved on to newer groups (Sexy Zone and A.B.C-Z) so I can see them slowing down with touring as well to complete the transition from being the younger/newer group to one of the more seasoned ones.

I think Johnny’s needs to keep HSJ members in dramas, and now that Yamada Ryosuke is older he can do more roles and I would like to see him starring in something else before the end of the year. It is an interesting move to have Chinen Yuri star in a drama, but I guess this will prove if he can be a lead drama actor like Yamada, something I am sure Johnny's would love.

I think they will try to do something for their fifth anniversary this year. It may not be anything really major but I am sure they would want to do something. It is a landmark that is worth recognizing in some way. But maybe with K8 taking up so much of the year with their anniversary HSJ is waiting for their actual anniversary date to begin doing something for it.

Another group I was off with as we only got one single from the group all year. But we did get a new album and have the single concert to go with it so that is a sorta right guess about that.

While there are not many other members in dramas this year it does look like things are improving on that front a bit with at least other members other than Yamada are getting roles on a more regular basis in the past. Hopefully these roles will eventually lead to something.

Unfortunately HSJ did nothing of note for their anniversary. I find that disappointing as I think there should have been some kind of celebration for them reaching that land mark. Especially when you have newer groups making a big deal of their first anniversary.

Kis-My-Ft2 should release two more singles before the year is up. They are one of Avex’ best selling acts so I am sure they will want them releasing as much as possible. I can actually see them being one of the few groups to release a single in August as they are one of the better selling Johnny’s groups and I think they could easily beat the AKS group releasing a single on August 1st, NO NAME. And since they will most likely be doing the theme song for Fujigaya Taisuke’s summer drama I think that would be a good release date for their next single.

I do not think a drama season will go by without a member having a role in a drama, even if the chances of that member not being Fujigaya Taisuke or Tamamori Yuta is slim. But I think Fujigaya moving into the leading man slot is a big thing, and hopefully his drama, Beginners, does well so he continue as the lead in dramas. I do hope though one of the other members get a chance for at least a supporting role in a drama before the end of the year. It will be nice to see them get these small pushes that will hopefully lead to bigger things with them.

Pretty much spot on for Kisumai. Of course it helps that they fit the usual mold for Avex artists that do well so they are going to have a rather steady release schedule from them. I am quite happy that I was spot on with them releasing in August even though it was a week later then I thought it would be.

Not surprised that I was right about the members of the group being frequently in dramas. They are getting solid pushes that I do not see stopping as long as they continue to do well.

~*

I am going to skip Sexy Zone as I am not following them much anymore. And in any case they did surprise me with releasing a single so late in the year then following up with an album.

For the Juniors I can see them slowly getting back to being a larger focus on Shounen Club. Kis-My-Ft2 has already moved on to being just guests and were not in May or June’s episodes so that should free up some time that can be given to Juniors. I think this would be a perfect time to push the Bakaleya6 as a group.

Also with the recent drama roles those Juniors should be getting some kind of push on the program. I would not be surprised to see more drama roles given to Juniors later in the year either. With the recent debuts now is a good time for Johnny’s to push some of the remaining Juniors to find the next big hits among them. This can be seen with the recent announcements of Juniors getting drama roles in the upcoming drama season.

The rest of the year should be interesting for Junior fans as things continue to shift for them as Johnny's searches for their next big hits and sets them up for possible future debuts.

I think there is a slow change to getting the Juniors just a little more screen time on SC. Unfortunately HSJ, SZ and A-Z make up a large portion of the program still, but with Bakaleya6 being full of rising Juniors they have had more presence on the program and I can see that growing as they continue to grow in popularity.

Overall it still looks like Johnny's is taking their time to figure out who they want to push in the Juniors. I think it is safe to say that they have their eyes on certain members and it will be mainly just time for Johnny's to decide what they want to do with them.

Speculating for the Juniors is always the hardest thing as there are just so many of them and it is not easy to tell what management is thinking in regards to them as you have no idea how they are really managed.

And I expect the Kansai Juniors to continue to keep gong strong. I think it is a good sign that they are being brought to Tokyo more and more for work and I expect it to eventually lead to something for them.

Well the Kanjuu are indeed continuing on and getting more and more breaks. Their Tokyo concerts are something exciting to look forward to as well as the upcoming movie for them. Still hope this all means something is being prepared for them, like a debut, in the near future.

NMB48 are most likely going to release two more singles this year, the next one has even already been confirmed for an August 8th release date. We will probably also get auditions for their fourth gen KKS announced but wait until after New Year’s to have their next team, Team BII, formed.

It will be interesting to see if the AKB48 sister groups also add extra groups to them, like AKB48’s Team 4, but that will be years down the line I would suppose and SKE48 will be the group that does it next.

I do wonder if NMB48 will get an album release. The AKS groups do not release CDs like most artists, with that they mainly just release singles. AKB48's first non-stage album was a single collection after all. But then they did release a studio album so it will be interesting to see if NMB48 will just continue with singles or will have a studio album of their own this year. Of course we could just get a stage album whenever they finally get around to doing their original stage.

I would not be surprised if there is another graduation this year, as sad as it would be. But when you have a group as big as NMB48 I think having a high turnover rate is to be expected, from health issues, like the girls that have graduated after making it into a team or for other reasons like the KKS graduations.

Well at least I can say I am right about the single releases for this group. Also there is a 4th generation of KKS but we got the formation of Team BII earlier than I expected.

With the recent group shuffles it is safe to say that there will be no Team 4 for NMB48. If anything they may just expand their teams eventually, though with the current rate of graduations it may not be much of an issue.

I no longer have to wonder about an album release as the group is expected to have their debut album in February. It will be interesting to see how that shapes up as we get more information about the release the closer we get to the release date.

And it seems like I was aiming low with only predicting one more graduation. Should have realized that with the next team forming it would mean a few KKS would graduate around that time. It is a bit worrying to have so many graduations but then again you look at the fact that they just had a group of girls join that will not be set to have a new team formed for so I doubt things are going to get better because it looks like they have no issues with finding fresh faces to join up in hopes of getting a spot on a team.


So in the end a mix bag of what I managed to guess right and things I was off on. Not a bad run and now I have to see about predicting the next six months for these groups.

Q&A Month! (2012): Question 2

I plan on playing catch up with this blog today, maybe tomorrow as well depending on how well I do today. So expect at least one more post today at least. Until then I will go ahead and answer a question.

If you have a question you want me to try and answer you can leave it in the comments on this post.

This question set is from bakadaboys:

for next FIVB group, is it possible for bakaleya6? which jr do you think will get chance??


Honestly if the Bakaleya6 are to remain a group I do not think they would be the next FIVB debut unit. The FIVB units are never pre-existing groups, the closest being the original Hey! Say! 7 all debuting as a part of Hey! Say! JUMP but even then the members had more or less gone back to their previous Junior groupings before the HSJ announcement.

B6 run a much greater chance of debuting as a unit like KAT-TUN and Kis-My-Ft2 which means they will have years as a Junior unit and have that time to build their fanbase so they can have a similar strong debut like those groups.

Seeing as I do not think either Nakajima Kento or Kikuchi Fuma, the two members of Sexy Zone in the agency the longest, were even in Johnny's or had only just joined a year out from Hey! Say! JUMP's debut I would say that it is much too soon to start guessing which Juniors could debut in 2015. When it comes to the FIVB groups I think it is better to wait until about a year or even half a year before the debut to start speculating on who would make it in. And even then by the nature of these groups it would be difficult to correctly guess who would make it.

Though I will give myself some credit in the fact that I did guess that Nakaken would be debuting in the 2011 group and that if Fuma were to debut it would be with him when I did attempt some debut predictions about seven months from the debut announcement.. Though I was so completely off about everything else. But honestly the younger three really were unknown at the time and I feel that perhaps if Morimoto Ryutaro did not have his scandal there would have been a chance for Shintaro to have debuted in SZ, as he was definitely the right age and he would have helped bring in early fans. But I guess that is neither here nor there now.

Let's Speculate: Junior expansion?

EDIT: Meant to actually put this in the original post but for whatever reason did not. But there is very little in the way of actual concrete information about this. So this is pretty much what I have cobbled together from comments I have found in various places in the English language fandom and anything I could figure out from information about Hirano Sho on Japanese sites, which I will admit could be off as I am far from fluent in Japanese.

So basically this is a lot of speculation. Sorry if this has caused any confusion. I know usually I am much better about warning about that in these kinds of posts but I ended up ignoring my inner editor and failed to give this warning before posting. And it has honestly been bugging me since hitting the post button.

~*

This information has been floating around a bit but I finally got around to rounding up more information about it. But there does seem to be a third group of Juniors other than the Tokyo and Kansai Juniors, Nagoya Juniors.

Nagoya Junior: Hirano Sho

Word has it that there are only about 15 Nagoya Juniors. So far the only one that anyone has information on is Hirano Sho because of his inclusion in the Kansai Junior group Kin Kan (Which seems a bit odd seeing as Kin Kan stands for "Kings of Kansai", but whatever it's a Johnny's group name so it does not have to really make sense.). But this looks like to be a new development and most get grouped with the Kanjuu, like with Hirano getting put in a Kanjuu group.

Whether or not Johnny's plans on growing the group even more so they can eventually get their own studio for lessons is only known to Johnny's. Though expanding on the Juniors would not be surprising seeing that there are more and more debuted groups to back dance for and it is probably easier to just have local Juniors do that for groups instead of having to bring Juniors with them to all the stops on a tour.

Nagoya has always been on the map for entertainment behind Osaka and Tokyo. It does have one of the official Johnny's Shops and if a group is hitting only a few cities on a tour it is pretty much assumed it will be on that short list. In fact I believe one of the first concert tours Hey! Say! JUMP did for going outside of just Tokyo just had Osaka and Nagoya as the additional cities. Of course the huge success of AKS sister group SKE48 cannot be overlooked as they are not only based out of Nagoya but were the first sister group of AKB48. So while Nagoya is not as well known as Tokyo and Osaka it should not be overlooked as it does indeed seem to have its own strong entertainment ties.

Of course that all said it does not look like we will see too much of them for a while, outside of Hirano because he is in an active Kanjuu group. But it shall be interesting to see what the future will bring with this development.

1st half of year predictions for 2012 NEWS-Kis-My-Ft2

NEWS is probably not going to be able to do too much for the first couple of months in 2012 if just because Johnny’s has to shift gears a bit with them now that they don’t have to take breaks for Kanjani8 to do something. I see that March will probably be the most likely month for their comeback single, which would be actually rather fitting seeing that the comeback single after the 2006 hiatus came out in March as well. I would love to see February but I think that month will be too full with other releases wit this winter drama season having so many Johnny’s in starring roles and having a good chance of their respective groups to do the theme songs for them. Other than that I think things are looking up for the group in general now that the remaining four can fully commit themselves to the group and there won’t be any need for them to take long breaks to do something else. I do hope around the middle of the year we’ll get another single at least.

I can see Kanjani8 having a similar year in 2012 to 2011. They are in a good spot for them, they may not be as mega popular as Arashi but they have risen in popularity enough that none of the members should have to worry about not having enough work. This year though is their 8th anniversary, and as they didn’t really do anything for their 5th like most groups do I’m sure they are planning something special for this year. I do think they will keep their release pattern to make sure they have a winter concert tour as they do need the Kyocera Dome in Osaka for Johnny’s Countdown as it seems to get more and more crowded every year at the Tokyo Dome.

KAT-TUN looks to be set to have a much better year with 2012 than with 2011. While their annual tour had to be cancelled they were able to at least keep releasing singles on a regular basis for the most part and with their next album, CHAIN, coming out in January they are set to begin touring again shortly after. Kamenashi Kazuya hit it big with his recent drama, Ningen Bemu, and it’s the kind of drama I can see getting a SP for it at some point after its run. But I think this should him and the group rise again after the fall they experienced with Akanishi Jin left when it comes to sales. They will probably keep the same release pattern for the most part so I don’t think KAT-TUN fans will be left wanting this year.

With a NYC single out of the way so quickly in the year it could mean Hey! Say! JUMP could actually have a rather normal year when it comes to releases. I think for the first half of the year we will definitely see a single release and I would think an album is a possibility. If we don’t get an album in the first half of the year it will come in the second half as with the next single they will have four singles that are not on an album and that is usually about the amount before an album gets released for Japanese artists. But certainly with the group doing the theme song for Yamada Ryosuke’s winter drama we should a single out of it and I would guess a February release date. And I would expect something for the group to celebrate their 5th anniversary in 2012, but it will most likely be something around the end of the year, closer to their debut date.

Akanishi Jin should be back in the U.S. for the start of 2012 as he gears up for his U.S. debut album. I would not be surprised if he released another Japanese single for the first half of the year, because even if his goal is America his largest fan base is in Japan. So I see for him that the first half of 2012 will be him trying to balance out releasing an album in the U.S. while keeping some interest in him in Japan.

Yamashita Tomohisa looks to be already set to go for the upcoming year, most likely helped by the fact that the things he’s set to do now were probably planned for him before the decision of him leaving NEWS was finalized. I’m sure we will be getting a new single or two from him during the first half of the year. 

Kis-My-Ft2 will be kept busy next year with the tours they’ve announced. The overseas tour and the national tour should keep them touring almost all throughout the year. Being signed on with Avex should help them with releasing singles in a regular schedule so even if they will be busy with touring they can still release something new. I will assume they should have a single for each season so their next one will be in Spring followed by another in Summer and hopefully an album after that.

2nd half of year predictions, debuted groups

Well summer has come and the year is about half way over now. The first half had some big surprises, both good and bad and mostly unpredictable. Hopefully the rest of the year will be calmer and things can start getting back to normal as things can get for Japan. I'll just be covering debuted (or officially set to debut) groups as I'm sure I'll get long winded about the Juniors.

SMAP looks like they'll manage as they always have the rest of the year. They're still one of the most popular Japanese artists and will keep busy with variety programs, dramas and movies. I can see them either releasing another single or a new album before the end of the year to keep their 20th anniversary celebration on track. Very few artists reach that hallmark, especially idol groups so I can't see Johnny's not wanting to do something for it for one of their top groups.

TOKIO has enough regular work they will continue doing. I am hoping though they will finally release an album before the end of the year. As they've already done a concert for this year I doubt they'll do another, though if they do release a new album they may tour next year.

Like the rest of the older groups Kinki Kids really doesn't seem all that affected by the first half of the year. Koichi has Endless Shock to keep him busy and I'm sure Tsuyoshi will find something for him to do. They also have a single coming up in a couple of weeks so they'll have their single for the year. Wouldn't be surprised if they do the usual tour in Winter so they'll have the Tokyo Dome for Countdown like usual.

As they haven't released a single this year I'll predict that V6 will release one before the end of the year. Though I don't see them doing much else. Usually I would assume they would have a tour still, either as a full group or one of the sub-units, but it doesn't look like there will be as many concert tours this year as there usually are and I can see them being one of the groups that will not be making their usual yearly tour.

Being one of the top groups more or less ensures that Arashi will continue to have the kind of releases they would usually. Which can be seen with the fact they have a concert DVD and a studio album coming up to be released over the summer as well as a tour lined up to take them through to early next year. I'll predict they'll have at least one more single that will be released, maybe two, before the year ends.

Tackey & Tsubasa are hard to guess about what will happen with them. The only thing that seems certain with them are the musical productions they keep themselves busy with. Release-wise I wouldn't be surprised if we don't anything more from them, together or as soloist.

I'd guess that we'd get at least a single from NEWS before the end of the year. I know there was a rumor for one for a July release but unless it ends up being late July I don't see that being more than a rumor. But as Yamapi's solo concert winds down and if Kanjani8 doesn't have anything lined up anytime soon I can see a single for the group being released in the next few months.

Kanjani8 have had a good year so far, despite all things. They're ending a string of single releases and I can see them putting out either another single or an album near the end of the year. I'm also sure we'll be seeing them do another winter tour so they can have the Kyocera Dome again for Countdown.

Poor KAT-TUN. This year was supposed to be their 5 year anniversary celebration but it doesn't look like things are turning out well for them. While I can see them keeping things up with releases they have had their concert tour canceled. I can see them releasing one more single and then an album before the year is out but they'll have to wait for 2012 to tour again.

Hey! Say! JUMP looks to be slowly getting back to some sort of regular release schedule. They're still hampered a bit with having to share members with NYC but they've been doing better with balancing the two groups. With any luck we'll get one more single from them before the end of the year or at latest early 2012. They're also one of the lucky groups that will be able to tour this year and have SUMMARY over the summer. It'll be interesting to see if they'll do the usual winter tour this year.

I don't see any new releases for Akanishi Jin until after he finishes filming for the 47 Ronin movie. And if anything it'll probably be another Japanese single.

Kis-My-Ft2 is probably the other group that's been most affected by the earthquake. They've had their debut single pushed back to sometime this summer and personally I'm going to guess it'll be sometime in August at this point. The tie-in to the Ikemen Desu ne drama will be a help though and make August the ideal month as then there will be anticipation built up from the drama for the release and the single should get a sales boost every time an episode airs once it has been released. Luckily they still have their tour and it seems to still be on schedule. I can see them getting at least one more single out before the end of the year and maybe we can finally get a concert DVD from them if not this year but next year.

And I guess I'll stick NYC here as well. I think it's possible for them to release another single before the end of the year but honestly they've already released something this year so they don't really need to and they can just use Yumetamago to be their end of year song.

And that about rounds everything up for the debuted groups.

Debut Speculation... B.I. Shadow (as of 05 August, 2010)

I've decided to hop over to one of the younger groups this time for speculating about debuts because honestly the ones with the greatest chances for debuting in the next year or so are the ones that are still in their teens now. I do plan on going back and looking at some of the older Junior groups eventually but for now I want to focus a bit more on the groups that have members that are most likely for debut.

There seem to be a few staples about the Juniors that Johnny's like to hold on to. One of these are having one of younger Juniors be the face of all the young Juniors, like Yabu Kota and Nakajima Yuto once were and Morimoto Shintarou currently is. Another is to have a group of four members which gets a good deal of attention. Perhaps it's a bit of a carry over from the first Johnny's group, named simply Johnny's, who had four members or even the Four Leaves, the Johnny's group that put the agency on the map in the Japanese entertainment industry. But very rarely is there a time where there isn't a popular four member Junior group in recent years with groups such as 4Tops, Ya-Ya-Yah and currently B.I. Shadow. In a way this is a good thing as members of each of those past groups have debuted, but not all of them so it's a bit of a double edged sword.

Looking at B.I. Shadow I definitely see parallels to Ya-Ya-Yah in how they get treated with how much screen time they get on Shounen Club and what concerts they are a part of. Both groups even have a CD release, even though BIS had to share with NYC, as Juniors. There is also how the performances are broken down, main focus on two members with the other two having noticeably smaller parts and screen time, though thankfully so far Yuugo and Hokuto have been able to be more than back dancers for Nakaken and Kikuchi. But even so I honestly feel that BIS will share the fate of 4Tops and Yax3 and won't be debuting as a group.

Going from which members tend to get the spotlight or opportunities to go on shows and be a part of dramas I would say that Nakaken is the shoe in for a debut. He's been in the most dramas and gets a lot of the spotlight and attention in the group. And personally I can't blame Johnny's for the treatment as he has been a flowing with charisma since the moment he got on stage.

Because he gets partnered so much with Nakaken I would say that Kikuchi also has a good shot for debut. I admit he took a while to grow on me but know that he's doing the games for Shounen Club and just getting more chances to show his personality I can't help but find myself liking him.

I also think there is a good chance for Yuugo to debut as well. He still may be the least polished looking during performances but he's been a joy to watch in the Junior Coliseum and I'm sure being on School Kakumei helps with getting people familiar with him.

And as much as I am a fan of his personally I can see Hokuto being the one most likely to be passed up for debut for now. I'm not going to say that I think he'll never debut, especially if the B.I.Shadow break up happens in the next couple of years, but he does not get as much attention or the chances for people to know him better as the other three members as things stand right now.

Of course most of this is based on believing that BIS will be broken up for the next volleyball debut, as if they aren't that will change things as a lot can happen over a few years. But seeing how the Juniors are now I think there's a good chance that it will happen. Especially if Johnny's wants to avoid having fans react so passionately about Yax3's break up. So if they don't have BIS around for as long as Yax3 then they most likely won't have as many die hard fans of the group if fans aren't given as much time to grow attached.

But looking at the history of groups like BIS I am certain at least one member will debut and there is always the chance that Johnny's will go for another large group (as they seem to be all the rage with girl groups like AKB48 and their copycats) and perhaps they will beat the odds and end up having all four debut into a large group like the original Hey! Say! 7 was merged into Hey! Say! JUMP. Whatever the outcome I plan on supporting all the members no matter what happens.

Debut Speculation… A.B.C.-Z (as of 23 July, 2010)

I did not forget about doing other groups for this. You can check out my thoughts about Kis-My-Ft2’s chances at debuting here. Of course since then they got the Dwango CM and have Fire Beat and Inori on sale digitally so I’m more hopeful at the moment about their chances though the deadline I’ve set still stands.

The next group I’ve decided to speculate about is A.B.C.-Z as they just seemed like the natural choice with being paired up with Kis-My-Ft2 in the past and still are from time to time.

To tell the truth I never really thought A.B.C. was going to debut as a group. It wasn’t because they weren’t talented or didn’t put in the same if not more hard work than other Juniors and groups but rather because they just did not have that stand out quality when compared to other Junior groups. I felt that they were going to be a group that would eventually follow the path of groups like M.A. and M.A.D. and be professional back dancers and the ones the older Johnny’s groups use for their concerts and performances when they’ve stopped using the younger Juniors. Which I don’t think is a terrible thing as Yara from M.A. has proven in the past few years you can still be pretty active and visible even if your group didn’t debut.

Of course I kept out the Z for A.B.C.-Z in that because I think there is still a chance for Hashimoto Ryosuke yet to debut. Soon after it was announced that he was being added to A.B.C. (and I began to get over the loss of the short lived Top3) I began to theorize that he was added to this group to get more experience on stage and more training. Before he was good at singing and dancing for the most part but outside of that he seemed like a fish out of water. If you can hunt down pre-A.B.C.-Z Shounen Club clips where Hasshi has to just stand and speak you can easily see how uncomfortable he is at it. So it’s really amazing to see him look and act so confidant when he’s talking on stage now, especially as he’s now willing to let his cute and silly side show much more. And he can now do some acrobatics which I'm sure would be put to use to set him apart if placed in another group for debut.

Hasshi is also the right age to be debuted (I still find it hard to believe he’s the same age as Yamada Ryosuke), as long as Johnny’s doesn’t go for another ‘youngest group to debut’ record, which after Snow Prince Gasshoudan I hope they’ve gotten out of their system. But I see Hasshi being one of the older members in the next volleyball group. He does have a good fanbase and the group will need someone who knows what they’re doing onstage to help guide the ones that don’t have that much experience.

So I think as long as the group is A.B.C.-Z they will still get a good deal of the spotlight for a Junior group even with Johnny’s shifting to younger and fresher Juniors. But I think once Hasshi leaves they will soon begin to get harder to see as they begin to shift to do other things as M.A. does. I’m sure Tackey will always have something for them to do with his musicals, plays and concerts but I wouldn’t be surprised if eventually those are the main ways you can see them in a few years. But I see the members of A.B.C. in it for the long haul and while debut may pass them by they will not be without opportunities within the agency for projects as could be seen with Johnny's having them produce their own concerts as well as concerts for some of the other Juniors when Mori Mitsuko had to cancel her shows earlier this year.

Debut Speculation… Kis-My-Ft2 (as of 15 June, 2010)

Recently I've been thinking about the next group to debut with Johnny's, probably because it just seems like the right time to think of that kind of thing now that Hey! Say! JUMP has their debut album well on the way. I've decided to do a couple of speculations, first starting with Kis-My-Ft2.

If you asked me a year ago if I thought Kis-My-Ft2 would debut I would feel confidant in saying ‘yes.’ Nowadays I don’t feel nearly as certain though about that outcome for the group.

Yes, the group is still showing signs that a debut is possible but there are some things that are lacking in the usual pre-debut formula that Johnny’s tend to have going for group debuts when comparing to the last group to debut as a group, KAT-TUN.

The biggest thing missing is seeing Kisumai doing things that would pull in more of the general Japanese population to get interested in them instead of relying on an already existing, though quite large, fan base. And I’m mostly talking about the fact that the members aren’t getting acting roles in things such as dramas or movies, which are commonly viewed by the general Japanese audience. As KAT-TUN gained the pre-debut popularity by having its members in dramas and movies, especially the popular Gokusen 2 and Nobuta no Produce dramas.

Even before the groups were formed there were members of both NEWS and Hey! Say! JUMP that were getting drama roles so they had recognition outside of the Junior fan base, especially in the year or so before the groups’ debuts. All Kisumai has is really Tamamori Yuta’s role in the 3rd Gokusen SP and the movie for that franchise, as Fujigaya Taisuke’s couple of drama roles were years ago and I doubt people really remember them. Over the summer the group will be too busy with touring with KAT-TUN for one of them to get a drama role, not to mention there just doesn’t seem to be as many roles going to Johnny’s anymore outside of a few that seem to be the only ones getting the breaks.

Also as my knowledge of Johnny’s has grown I’ve come to re-evaluate some things that I had thought were sure fire proofs of pre-debut group activity.

One of those things is the solo concerts. Looking at other popular Junior groups the tours or PLAYZONE can’t be counted as indicators of eminent debut, as Ya-Ya-Yah had concerts (though, correct me if I'm wrong, they were shared) and were in quite a few plays but they still did not debut together. Those probably fall more into the ’maybe’ pile of things that could point towards a debut. Or at least the idea that at least someone from the group will end up debuting.

I honestly believe that if Kis-My-Ft2 does not debut by mid-2011 then they will not be debuting as a group after all. I say this because if Johnny’s keeps debuting a group every four years (V6 for 1995-Arashi for 1999-NEWS for 2003-Hey! Say! JUMP for 2007) then the second half of 2011 will be focused on debuting the next one, and since these groups have always been put together for the debut there is little chance they would use a pre-existing group like Kis-My-Ft2. They are more likely to take a member or so from the group and have them join the new unit. And most likely it will be the younger members of the unit that would be selected as Johnny’s doesn’t seem interested in debuting the older Juniors anymore if last year’s focus on young Junior groups are any indication.

I think the only silver lining to it all is that because of all the attention and opportunities the group has been getting it does make the chances of at least one member debuting. I do believe Tamamori Yuta would be that one if it happens, though I do hope he would not be the only Kisumai member selected for debut. But of course for me I would just rather have the group as a whole debut as I think if given the chance they could do well but they need the support and faith of the agency to be able to do so. And for now I just don’t see that there.