Debut Speculation… Kis-My-Ft2 (as of 15 June, 2010)

Recently I've been thinking about the next group to debut with Johnny's, probably because it just seems like the right time to think of that kind of thing now that Hey! Say! JUMP has their debut album well on the way. I've decided to do a couple of speculations, first starting with Kis-My-Ft2.

If you asked me a year ago if I thought Kis-My-Ft2 would debut I would feel confidant in saying ‘yes.’ Nowadays I don’t feel nearly as certain though about that outcome for the group.

Yes, the group is still showing signs that a debut is possible but there are some things that are lacking in the usual pre-debut formula that Johnny’s tend to have going for group debuts when comparing to the last group to debut as a group, KAT-TUN.

The biggest thing missing is seeing Kisumai doing things that would pull in more of the general Japanese population to get interested in them instead of relying on an already existing, though quite large, fan base. And I’m mostly talking about the fact that the members aren’t getting acting roles in things such as dramas or movies, which are commonly viewed by the general Japanese audience. As KAT-TUN gained the pre-debut popularity by having its members in dramas and movies, especially the popular Gokusen 2 and Nobuta no Produce dramas.

Even before the groups were formed there were members of both NEWS and Hey! Say! JUMP that were getting drama roles so they had recognition outside of the Junior fan base, especially in the year or so before the groups’ debuts. All Kisumai has is really Tamamori Yuta’s role in the 3rd Gokusen SP and the movie for that franchise, as Fujigaya Taisuke’s couple of drama roles were years ago and I doubt people really remember them. Over the summer the group will be too busy with touring with KAT-TUN for one of them to get a drama role, not to mention there just doesn’t seem to be as many roles going to Johnny’s anymore outside of a few that seem to be the only ones getting the breaks.

Also as my knowledge of Johnny’s has grown I’ve come to re-evaluate some things that I had thought were sure fire proofs of pre-debut group activity.

One of those things is the solo concerts. Looking at other popular Junior groups the tours or PLAYZONE can’t be counted as indicators of eminent debut, as Ya-Ya-Yah had concerts (though, correct me if I'm wrong, they were shared) and were in quite a few plays but they still did not debut together. Those probably fall more into the ’maybe’ pile of things that could point towards a debut. Or at least the idea that at least someone from the group will end up debuting.

I honestly believe that if Kis-My-Ft2 does not debut by mid-2011 then they will not be debuting as a group after all. I say this because if Johnny’s keeps debuting a group every four years (V6 for 1995-Arashi for 1999-NEWS for 2003-Hey! Say! JUMP for 2007) then the second half of 2011 will be focused on debuting the next one, and since these groups have always been put together for the debut there is little chance they would use a pre-existing group like Kis-My-Ft2. They are more likely to take a member or so from the group and have them join the new unit. And most likely it will be the younger members of the unit that would be selected as Johnny’s doesn’t seem interested in debuting the older Juniors anymore if last year’s focus on young Junior groups are any indication.

I think the only silver lining to it all is that because of all the attention and opportunities the group has been getting it does make the chances of at least one member debuting. I do believe Tamamori Yuta would be that one if it happens, though I do hope he would not be the only Kisumai member selected for debut. But of course for me I would just rather have the group as a whole debut as I think if given the chance they could do well but they need the support and faith of the agency to be able to do so. And for now I just don’t see that there.