20 March 2014

Debut Speculations (2014)

With Johnny's WEST set to debut next month it has put the topic on my mind. After the debuts of Kis-My-Ft2, Sexy Zone and A.B.C-Z I knew we were going to get a bit of a break before the next debut though there was a good chance to get one before 2015. That has panned out with JWEST's debut, which has been long overdue in its own right. And I am feeling that this debut has debunked the whole "no debuts until 2020" thing, I am probably going to be right in believing that 2015 will give us the next FIVB group debut as they come every four years.

Of course with FIVB groups it is hard to guess which Juniors will be selected for this group. The best guesses is that it will be some of the younger ones. I think the four that get regularly group: Jinguji Yuta, Iwahashi Genki, Kishi Yuta and Miyachika Kaito, stand a fair chance to be selected. There may not be an official group of four to be broken up by a debut but they seem to be rather stable and seem to fill the position the past couple groups of four, Ya-Ya-Yah and B.I. Shadow, had on the show leading up to being disbanded for members to debut in a FIVB group.

Otherwise just checking to see who among the younger Juniors get pushed a lot during this year and the next. I think it was pretty obvious that Johnny's had plans for Sato Shori with how heavily he was pushed in 2011. Of course there will be at least a member or more that will seem to come out of left field but that is nothing new for these groups.

Outside of this group I do expect that sometime after the FIVB 2015 debut we will get a debut for the older Juniors. Usually one can get an idea of who that will be as it is usually a Junior group but with the Juniors not being put in groups for the most part it looks like it will end up just being a grouping of the older Juniors. Sure there are a few groups but none seem positioned as KAT-TUN, Kis-My-Ft2 or even to the same extent as A.B.C-Z. Instead it will probably be a group put together of the more popular older Juniors or those that the agency has faith in debuting. While some names could be thrown out now for those who could be selected based on who is getting pushed now I think it would be best to wait until after 2015 to start making guesses as a lot can happen between now and then.

In a way it is frustrating not to have the Junior groups like there was before as the groups made it easier to keep track of the more prominent Juniors. The groups also allowed fans to rally around them to help them move on to hopeful debut. Now one just has to hope that the Junior and/or Juniors that you like will be chosen to debut at some point.


Neko NyanNyan said...

I think it's always intressting thinking about juniors having adebut. But to be honest I don't know if I would really support a band consisting of the youger juniors. It's not that I don't like them but I have the feeling that they have not been there for long enough. The Juniors I really badly would want to have a debut someday are Shintaro, Juri and Yasui. But I hope they will still wait with a debut because I think they still should grow up a bit more. Same goes for the younger juniors. Like for e.g. I think Kishi has a great potantial and I would like to support him when he debuts in a band BUT I still think they should give him more time to grow up. >-< I personally don't mind waiting, if it's for the sake of the juniors I like.

Thennary Nak said...

It's been a staple of the FIVB debut units to have at least one member of the group that has been in Johnny's for an extremely short period of time since the first one, V6, debuted with Okada Junichi who passed the audition not long before the debut. It is just the way these groups are formed that "youth" is made into their key image so most of their members are going to be young to fit that. They are the groups that are meant to have members that are still rough around the edges because of a lack of experience but the agency hopes that they will fulfill the potential they see in them. Though with how rocky Sexy Zone started out I do hope they put some of the more experienced Juniors that should have a decent fanbase in the 2015 group. But even if they do choose Juniors that have been around for some years they will still be among the younger ones (which honestly in this context are those around 18 and younger), especially if Johnny's still wants to try for an even younger average age group than SZ. (Though I honestly hope they don't as they'll probably end up with the same issues they did with SZ at the start.)

I would love to have an older Junior group debut, but there are so many active Johnny's groups, and quite a few still under five years from their debut that I know it is going to be a wait. But I won't give up hope for them as I think the ones that really stick with it will get their chance.